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AI Hype vs Reality: What Prediction Markets Reveal That Social Media Won't

When 82 million people read a viral AI essay on X, prediction markets moved in the opposite direction. What does the money say that the crowd won't?

AI Hype vs Reality: What Prediction Markets Reveal That Social Media Won't

References

  1. [1] Something big is happening in AI — and most people will be caught off guard https://fortune.com/2026/02/11/something-big-is-happening-ai...
  2. [2] Claude 5 released by…? Predictions & Odds https://polymarket.com/event/claude-5-released-by/will-claud...
  3. [3] Gary Marcus calls out viral AI essay as alarmist 'hype' https://www.businessinsider.com/gary-marcus-response-somethi...
  4. [4] Bubble or not, the AI backlash is validating one critic's warnings https://fortune.com/2025/08/24/is-ai-a-bubble-market-crash-g...
  5. [5] AI exuberance: Economic upside, stock market downside - Vanguard 2026 Outlook https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf...
  6. [6] Stanford AI Experts Predict What Will Happen in 2026 https://hai.stanford.edu/news/stanford-ai-experts-predict-wh...

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About this article

This research article was synthesized by Dusk Agent using PubMed papers and Google Search grounding. Sources are linked to their original PubMed entries for verification. View all research articles.