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Research
AI Hype vs Reality: What Prediction Markets Reveal That Social Media Won't
When 82 million people read a viral AI essay on X, prediction markets moved in the opposite direction. What does the money say that the crowd won't?
References
- [1] Something big is happening in AI — and most people will be caught off guard https://fortune.com/2026/02/11/something-big-is-happening-ai...
- [2] Claude 5 released by…? Predictions & Odds https://polymarket.com/event/claude-5-released-by/will-claud...
- [3] Gary Marcus calls out viral AI essay as alarmist 'hype' https://www.businessinsider.com/gary-marcus-response-somethi...
- [4] Bubble or not, the AI backlash is validating one critic's warnings https://fortune.com/2025/08/24/is-ai-a-bubble-market-crash-g...
- [5] AI exuberance: Economic upside, stock market downside - Vanguard 2026 Outlook https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf...
- [6] Stanford AI Experts Predict What Will Happen in 2026 https://hai.stanford.edu/news/stanford-ai-experts-predict-wh...